The Brief No 63
02 November 2024
Syria falls into the hands of revolutionaries; Bashar al Assad flees the country and concerns of instability grow.
Here are some realities and what could be expected:
Hezbollah and Iran’s involvement in Palestine left Syria vulnerable. Syria has always received protection and support, financially from Iran and Hezbollah provided ground human support. Israel destroyed enormous infrastructure of Hezbollah over the past 18 months. It can be argued therefore that Israel paved and facilitated the ousting of Assad. Hayyat Al Takrir Al Shams took advantage of a weakened and vulnerable government and army. It also took advantage of a weakened Hezbollah and an overstretched Iran.
This has created new realities on the ground in Syria:
• Iran has been dealt a serious blow. It has not only lost an ally in Assad, its direct connection with Hezbollah is gone.
• Lebanese army is going to resume military control of the country, a responsibility which has largely rested with Hezbollah.
• Syria could become a new centre of resistance in the region.
• Jordan and Egypt could be the next targets. This could be the beginning of the second Arab Spring.
Afrasid is available for analysis and commentary.