The Brief No 62
04 November 2024
The US foreign policy has been “fortified and rigid” since its inception. Notwithstanding its numerous failures at various fronts, it has resisted all forms of reforms.
The advent of Donald Trump in US politics has been disruptive and has threatened the status quo of its foreign policy. Trump has questioned traditional foreign policy positions of the US including US’s participation in the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). His transactional and disruptive style of politics has pushed his political opponents to the corner, sometimes forcing them to succumb to his level of interaction and politics, especially on foreign relations.
Consequently, the foreign policy discussions have shifted to the public gallery in the US putting pressure at the State Department. Politicians are putting the foreign policy of the country to test at political rallies across the US, the responses are often immediate. What has also been clear is that the US's citizens want their domestic affairs prioritised, they want a foreign policy that is informed by domestic interests.
Afrasid believes that:
There will be less expansion of international engagements by the US post these elections.
The US will continue its engagements with Africa through Africa Growth and Opportunities Act (AGOA). It will use AGOA as its bargaining tool to advance some of its current political and military ambitions in Africa.
The US will be less confrontational with China and Russia in Africa. China is likely to advance its foreign relations and economic development agenda in Africa uninterrupted.
Russia will certainly flex its muscles in Africa. It is likely to thrive in an environment with less US political push back. Russia will utilise all available platforms to advance its missions in Africa including the Wagner Group
There will be new entrants in African political and economic terrains as the US scales back its engagement. These new entrants will play a role in settling and encouraging conflicts in all the troubled spots in Africa. The new entrants will include; Turkiye, Iran and United Arab Emirates (UAE) amongst others
Afrasid is available for analysis and commentary.