The Brief No. 71
20 February 2026

Whilst Donald Trump was hosting the first meeting of the Board of Peace in Washington, on 18 Feb. 2026, there were reports abound of the looming attack of Iran by the US.  The Board of Peace is an organisation which was established by Donald Trump in September 2025 for the purpose of “promoting peacekeeping around the world”. 

There has been a buildup of US military presence in the Gulf.  The US has been using its military presence in the Gulf to force Iran to "reach a deal"on it nuclear program.  According to the UK based The Independent newspaper, “the US president Donald Trump has given a deadline of 10 to 15 days to Iran to make a deal over its nuclear program or warned that really bad things will happen”.

On 22 June 2025 the US attacked Fordow Uranium Enrichment Plants, Natanz Nuclear Facility and Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center in Iran. It was a quick overnight military operation.  Donald Trump declared at the time that Iran’s nuclear project was “obliterated”.  Renewed attacks on Iran could have negative impact in the region and to global energy supply:

• Attacking Iran could negatively impact global energy flows. It is estimated that 20% of the world's liquefied natural gas and 25% of seaborne oil trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz. If attacked Iran may block the strait; that may lead to devastating impact on global energy supplies.

• Moreover, an attack on Iran could  also threaten the success of the Board of Peace. The majority of countries, who will be impacted by an attack on Iran have underwritten and committed funds to Trump’s Board of Peace.

• The Houthis in Yemen - strong allies of Iran- could resume attacking ships in the Red Sea. This could additionally disturb the movement of energy supplies and other goods in the Red Sea.

• Iran has vowed to retaliate if attacked by the US. The retaliation is likely to target US’s installations in the region. The Al Udeid military base in Qatar is likely to be the first target. 

Most countries in the region have rallied against any attacks on Iran.  Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are amongst those who have refused the utilization of their respective airspaces by the US if it decides to attack Iran. 

Iran has stood against Israel as it continues to commit genocide in Gaza. It has provided support to the people of Gaza to resist the occupation by israel.  Attacking Iran could further elevate its political stature in the region.

Afrasid is available for commentary and analysis.

www.afrasid.org

The Brief, No. 70
20 October, 2025

Elections in Cote d’Ivoire will take place on 25 October 2025. Notwithstanding the constitutional challenges at the beginning of the elections champaign and protests, there has been calm leading to the elections in Cote d’Ivoire.

Recently fake news propaganda and misinformation campaign has intensified. According to Radio France Internationale (RFI), “there are a lot of rumors and misinformation circulating about possible violence and forms of destabilization that might take place or currently taking place”. All this is meant to destabilise the country before elections.

The political processes leading to the upcoming elections in Cote d’Ivoire suggest a change in politics in the region. The manner in which the constitutional challenges on the illegibility of Ouattara’s candidacy was resolved was indicative.

Having observed the political developments leading to the elections in Cote d’Ivoire Afrasid predicts the following:
• President Alassane Ouattara will win the upcoming elections. His win will be significant in a region that is desperate for matured statesmanship as the young populist politics proliferate.
• Cote d’Ivoire is likely to be a significant conduit between Europe and the US on one hand and the region
• Attempts to push for similar revolutions that have been experienced in neighboring countries will likely continue. However, Cote d’Ivoire is likely to ring fence itself from that by strengthening its democratic institutions and intensifying its upward economic trajectory.
• Importantly, this is President Ouattara last term in office. This will open up for young energetic political leadership in Cote d’Ivoire.

Africa Asia Dialogues (Afrasid) is available for analysis and commentary.

www.afrasid.org 

The Brief, No. 69
21 September, 2025

Hereunder is what will make the creation of a Palestinian state an almost impossible mission to achieve. Secondly, why most Palestinians are less enthusiastic about the recognition of the “Palestinian state” by many European countries:

1. The occupation and displacement of the Palestinians did not start on 07 October 2023. Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians were forcibly removed - from their homes and land by the Zionists in 1948 - in what is referred to by the Palestinians as al Nakba, a catastrophe.
2. The Palestinians have been fighting for the right to return to their homes and land ever since. Al Nakba resulted in mass killings of Palestinians and large-scale displacement of more than 700 000 people. The displacement and killing of the Palestinians continued during the “Arab-Israeli Wars” in 1967, 1973 and 1982. Displaced Palestinians live in harsh conditions in refugee camps in neighboring Syria, Lebanon, Jordan and in Egypt. They are stateless, without appropriate documentation to access government facilities, work and travel.
3. Moreover, there are additional hundreds of thousands of Palestinians who remain internally displaced and live under unbearable conditions in Israel (Palestine 1948) West Bank and in Gaza. These are Palestinians who never left Palestine and remained internally displaced including in what is today Israel. What will happen to them and their aspirations should a Palestinian state be created?
4. Significantly, geographically; the Palestinian state will simply be impossible to establish given the realities on the ground. Israel has continued to build illegal Jewish settlements in the land that was designated to become a Palestinian state. What is a reality today in “Palestine” are pockets of enclaves surrounded by red roofed illegal Jewish settlements.
5. Lastly, the approval of plans to further expand illegal settlements and commitment of the ultra-rightwing politicians led by the Finance Minister of Israel, Bezalel Smotrich, to ethnically cleanse the Palestinians, makes it impossible to establish anything resembling a state.

Africa Asia Dialogues (Afrasid) is available for commentary and analysis.\

www.afrasid.org

The Brief, No. 68
15 September 2025

Internet connectivity remains the most challenging in most African countries. Cote d’Ivoire’s Ministry of Digital Transition and Digitalisation, a dedicated ministry established to bridge the digital divide and improve internet connectivity, is extending broadband to 30 rural towns in the country by end of September 2025. According to the government, this will help to expand access to education, health and trade.

President Alassane Ouattara has accelerated development in Cote d’Ivoire since taking office. There has been increased economic growth and infrastructural development in the country. Ouattara has turned the economy that has been sluggish for years into one of the most thriving in the region. Economic growth has been facilitated by large investment especially in oil/gas sector and expanded infrastructure. It is projected that the economy will grow by 7% between 2024-2027.

Cote D’Ivoire is set for presidential elections on the 25 October 2025. There are five candidates whose candidacy has been approved by the Constitutional Council. The incumbent President Alassane Ouattara seems set to win the next presidential elections. According to the Polymarket, an online prediction market platform, 92% of those polled predict Ouattara to win next elections.

Ouattara a former World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) executive has used his professional experience to turn the economy of Cote D’Ivoire around. Importantly, it has been his ability to beneficiate and improve the cocoa industry that has added to the economic successes of Cote D’Ivoire. Ouattara administration has promoted domestic grinding and chocolate production. Subsequently, Cote D’Ivoire has become the world’s to cocoa grinder, processing 40-50% of its beans locally.

Afrasid is available for commentary and analysis.

www.afrasid.org

The Brief, No 67
13 June 2025

Yesterday, the global nuclear watchdog's board of governors formally declared Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for the first time in 20 years. Earlier in the day reports emerged that Israel was preparing itself for imminent attacks on Iran. The IAEA’s Board of Governors resolution was passed on Thursday with 19 votes in favour, three against and 11 abstentions.

Who is presenting existential threat to other nations in the region? Netanyahu has accused Iran of presenting an existential threat to Israel notwithstanding that it is Israel that possesses nuclear weapons. IAEA has been denied monitoring access to Israel’s nuclear program. Israel continually violates national sovereignty and security of its neighbors, it is relentlessly bombing Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and now Iran. It also continues to commit genocide in Gaza.

The attacks on Iran could cause unprecedented destruction and political damage in the region and the world economy.

The US has absolved itself of any knowledge nor being involved in the recent attacks on Iran, it insists that Israel acted alone. According to the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, the U.S. is not involved in Israel's airstrikes on Iran.

The following factors are important to consider as we attempt to understand the latest developments:

• The US is engaged in very serious talks with Iran on its nuclear program, these attacks undermine those efforts and indeed the US’s bona fides in the talks.
• Israel is likely acting alone. Netanyahu has used the IAEA report to legitimize his latest attacks on Iran.
• Donald Trump - notwithstanding his public statements cautioning Israel not to attack Iran - is likely to be angered by the latest developments. This will further strain his dwindling relationship with Netanyahu.
• The attacks on Iran could also indicate that Israel could be rounding off its military operations in Gaza. Earlier in the week reports emerged that Donald Trump told Benyamin Netanyahu in a phone call “to stop the war in Gaza”.
• The attacks on Iran come weeks after Donald Trump’s tour to the Gulf region. Leaders of the region made it clear during the tour that they will not support any strikes against Iran by Israel. The attacks on Iran will undermine the outcomes of the tour and risk some Gulf countries, particulary those that have made financial commitments to the US, pulling back from those commitments.

In conclusion, Benjamin’s Netanyahu’s survival is dependent largely on the continuation of the war in the region. Israel’s failure to destroy Hamas in Gaza has led the country to look for new targets; Iran has been the low hanging for a long time given the national sentiments on Iran in Israel.

It has become clear that Trump has stopped his unconditional support of Netanyahu. There is an overwhelming suport in Israel of the war on Gaza and attack on Iran.  Benjamin Netanyahu is now dependent on Israelis' national support to continue with his wars in the region.

Afrasid is available for analysis and commentary.

www.afrasid.org