The Brief, No. 43
24 June, 2023
The mutiny by the Wagner Group against the Kremlin’s top brass will impact the war in Ukraine and geopolitics in Sub Saharan Africa.
The Wagner Group is involved in a number of conflicts in Sub-Saharan Africa, including Mali, Central African Republic (CAR), Sudan and Libya to name but a few.
The manner in which the mutiny occurred in Russia is similar to that in Sudan.
After refusing to be integrated into the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) engaged in a mutiny.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu demanded that Wagner Group’s troops sign contracts with his ministry by July 1, 2023. The leader of Wagner Group Yevgeny Prigozhin refused. Afrasid believes this led to the mutiny.
Examining the implications of the mutiny in Sub-Saharan Africa
Wagner is accused of sponsoring the RSF in Sudan. The mutiny will certainly impact that conflict. There could be the weakening of the RSF and possible pull out of the Wagner Group from Sudan.
Other conflicts in Africa where the Wagner Group has been active could also see drastic changes.
Moreover, Russia’s rapprochement in Sub-Saharan Africa will certainly be impacted overall. The disappearance of the Wagner Group from the political scene in Sub-Saharan Africa could limit Russia’s “dirty work in Africa”.
Importantly the mutiny could ease South Africa’s predicament regarding Putin’s visit to the country in August 2023 for the BRICS Summit. Putin is unlikely to leave Russia in the midst of mutiny.
Afrasid is available for analysis and commentary.