War  In Ukraine

War in Ukraine, Putin High Alerts Russian Nuclear Forces

The Brief, No 19

28 February 2022

President Putin puts Russia’s military on a nuclear high alert.  This means that Mr. Putin is putting Russia’s nuclear forces, those trained to execute nuclear war, on a standby.

The latest announcement by Mr. Putin is concerning and could lead to his demise.  This announcement also presents new scenarios moving forward:

  • The seriousness of this announcement is likely to trigger secret discussions between concerned military top brass from both NATO and Russia. They are likely to establish private discussions to prevent a global disaster.
  • There is likely to be senior military defections from the Russian army, particularly as the demise of Mr. Putin becomes more apparent.
  • There is likely to be an “Intra Russian revolution” led by the Russian elite as their wealth dwindle in front of their eyes.
  • The next coming days will see more tightening of sanctions and further isolation of Russia particularly Mr. Putin and his cronies.
  • Protests are likely to grow to other parts of Moscow as more countries and international organisations isolate Mr. Putin and allies.

Afrasid believes Mr. Putin would not give up easily however is likely to vacate the Presidency. 


  • US, NATO and the EU will not allow Putin back into power, the decision to invade Ukraine will be used as a pretext. The will therefore continue to put pressure on Mr. putin even if if he decides to negotiate.
  • We are likely to see military defections of Russian top brass soon. Russian soldiers are likely to abandon posts subsequently particularly as orders get intercepted.
  • Cyber-attacks on Russian institutions are likely to increase from activists and hackers around the world
  • Sustained protests are likely to ensue in Russia in the next weeks, particularly as economic situation continue to deteriorate.

Afrasid available for analysis and commentary.


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