The Brief, No 67
13 June 2025

Yesterday, the global nuclear watchdog's board of governors formally declared Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for the first time in 20 years. Earlier in the day reports emerged that Israel was preparing itself for imminent attacks on Iran. The IAEA’s Board of Governors resolution was passed on Thursday with 19 votes in favour, three against and 11 abstentions.

Who is presenting existential threat to other nations in the region? Netanyahu has accused Iran of presenting an existential threat to Israel notwithstanding that it is Israel that possesses nuclear weapons. IAEA has been denied monitoring access to Israel’s nuclear program. Israel continually violates national sovereignty and security of its neighbors, it is relentlessly bombing Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and now Iran. It also continues to commit genocide in Gaza.

The attacks on Iran could cause unprecedented destruction and political damage in the region and the world economy.

The US has absolved itself of any knowledge nor being involved in the recent attacks on Iran, it insists that Israel acted alone. According to the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, the U.S. is not involved in Israel's airstrikes on Iran.

The following factors are important to consider as we attempt to understand the latest developments:

• The US is engaged in very serious talks with Iran on its nuclear program, these attacks undermine those efforts and indeed the US’s bona fides in the talks.
• Israel is likely acting alone. Netanyahu has used the IAEA report to legitimize his latest attacks on Iran.
• Donald Trump - notwithstanding his public statements cautioning Israel not to attack Iran - is likely to be angered by the latest developments. This will further strain his dwindling relationship with Netanyahu.
• The attacks on Iran could also indicate that Israel could be rounding off its military operations in Gaza. Earlier in the week reports emerged that Donald Trump told Benyamin Netanyahu in a phone call “to stop the war in Gaza”.
• The attacks on Iran come weeks after Donald Trump’s tour to the Gulf region. Leaders of the region made it clear during the tour that they will not support any strikes against Iran by Israel. The attacks on Iran will undermine the outcomes of the tour and risk some Gulf countries, particulary those that have made financial commitments to the US, pulling back from those commitments.

In conclusion, Benjamin’s Netanyahu’s survival is dependent largely on the continuation of the war in the region. Israel’s failure to destroy Hamas in Gaza has led the country to look for new targets; Iran has been the low hanging for a long time given the national sentiments on Iran in Israel.

It has become clear that Trump has stopped his unconditional support of Netanyahu. There is an overwhelming suport in Israel of the war on Gaza and attack on Iran.  Benjamin Netanyahu is now dependent on Israelis' national support to continue with his wars in the region.

Afrasid is available for analysis and commentary.

www.afrasid.org

The Brief No. 66*

23 April 2025

President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine will be visiting South Africa on 24 April 2025. His visit will be short, he is likely to travel straight from South Africa to the Vatican City for the funeral of Pope Francis who died earlier this week. Most leaders have indicated that they will be attending the funeral of Pope Francis. President Donald Trump was the first to announce his attendance.

It is going to be an extremely important gathering, the one that Zelensky will not want to miss. This gathering alone could actually reduce his travel schedule this year. Everyone, he wants to meet and talk to will be there.

President Trump is warming up to President Putin of Russia, and by all appearances seems to be on the side of Russia in the war between Russia and Ukraine. He has also made his position clear on Zelensky. He has blamed Volodymyr Zelensky for starting the war with Russia. He repeated those claims a day after a major Russian attack killed 35 people and injured 117 others in the Ukrainian city of Sumy.

South Africa finds itself once again on the wrong side of the US foreign policy on Ukraine.

Firstly, although the Zelensky’s visit to SA was agreed long ago, certainly before Zelensky’s spat with President Trump and Vice President JD Vance at the White House on 27 February 2025. This visit could be wittingly and unwittingly misconstrued by Washington, leading to further deterioration of relations between Pretoria and Washington.

Secondly, South Africa has been accused of siding with Russia in its invasion of Ukraine. Accusations went further to suggest that South Africa was supplying weapons to Russia. In May 2023, former US ambassador to South Africa, Reuben Brigety alleged that a Russian ship was loaded with ammunition and weapons in Cape Town. South Africa denied the claims.

South Africa was damned for “siding with Russia” in the past. It is likely to be damned for “siding with Ukraine” this time around.

Afrasid is available to provide analysis and commentary.

www.afrasid.org

The Brief No 65

10 March 2025

Ukraine has insisted that there can never be peace talks or any discussions about “Ukraine without Ukraine”. It has also insisted on having a seat on the table when discussions about ending the war in Ukraine take place.

The US held talks in Saudi Arabia with Russia on the war in Ukraine without involving Ukraine.

Days before that, the White House confirmed a telephone call between President Putin of Russia and Donald Trump on ending the war in Ukraine.

On 28 Feb 2025, during a state visit to the US, President Zelensky was berated by both President Trump and Vice President JD Vance during a press conference inside the White House. Zelensky was accused of being ungrateful and disrespectful.

The dial seems to have shifted in terms of US’s attitude towards Ukraine, particularly towards President Zelensky after the incident in the White House.

President Zelensky is due to meet the US delegation in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia on 11 March 2025 on ending the war with Russia.

The invitation of President Zelensky, who was initially excluded from these crucial talks about the future of his country, is certainly a win for President Zelensky.

Afrasid is ready to provide commentary and analysis as the world awaits the outcome of the meeting.

www.afrasid.org

The Brief No 64

25 December 2024

Change in politics in the region, particularly in South Africa, Namibia and Botswana; gave Mozambicans hope that they too were going to have new political setup in their country.

Many in Mozambique, particularly young people, were hoping that independent candidate Venancio Mondlane will win the elections.

On Monday the constitutional court of Mozambique reconfirmed that Daniel Chopa leader of FRELIMO was a winner of elections held on 09 October 2025.

After considerations by the constitutional council the results were slightly changed. Daniel Chapo’s majority was reduced from 71% to 65%. Independent candidate Venancio Mondlane received 24% of the vote according to the constitutional court.

Founded by Eduardo Mondlane and Samora Machel in Dar ea Salam in 1962. FRELIMO has been governing Mozambique since its independence in 1975.

However, the party has been losing support over the years, particularly amongst the youth, due to its failure to deliver services, improve the economy and reduce the levels of high unemployment. It has also failed to benefit the majority of Mozambicans from its gas riches which were recently discovered in that country.

The rise of Islamic insurgency in the northern province of Cabo Delgado has also not made things easy in Mozambique. Instead it has further added to political instability and polarisation.

What are the implications of the current political stalemate in Mozambique to South Africa:

South African economy will certainly be impacted. Most companies in South Africa utilise Maputo port for both import and export of their products.

Possible political refugee problem if the situation gets out of control could ensue. South Africa might have to deal with unexpected influx of refugees.

Tourism in both countries will be impacted. There are already serious delays at the Lebombo boarder between South Africa and Mozambique_

Finally, South Africa will have to tread very carefully in dealing with the current political stalemate in Mozambique. Notwithstanding its historical relationship with FRELIMO, It has to put an extra effort not to be seen to be taking sides.

Afrasid is available for commentary and analysis

The Brief No 63

02 November 2024