The Brief No. 30
23 July 2022
The grain shipments from Ukraine to start in the Black Sea following a deal brokered by Turkey and the UN
Ukraine and Russia have agreed to work together to facilitate the shipments of grains in the Black Sea. Turkey and the UN facilitated negotiations amidst concerns of rising world food prices.
What is behind this agreement? Why did Russia agree to this deal and what does it mean for all the stakeholders?
First, this will give Ukraine an economic lifeline as grain exports start leaving its ports.
Second, Russia’s maritime traffic in the Black Sea, like all others, uses Marmara Sea to reach the rest of the world. Turkey blocked some Russian shipment following complaints from Ukraine. Turkey controls Marmara Sea in its entirety, in other words nothing can move in and out of the Black Sea to the Mediterranean without agreeble Turkey. This deal will allow Russia to use Marmara without a backlash and a threat from Turkey, a member of NATO.
Third, this deal has to an extent managed to resuscitate the relevancy of the UN Secretary General’s office. It is good news for the Secretary General leading to the UN General Assembly due to take place in September 2022.
Finally, this deal emphasises Turkey’s strategic importance in the Black Sea. It is certainly a win for Turkey’s transactional foreign policy which continues to use its strategic geographical position to further its objectives.
Afrasid is available for analysis and commentary