The Brief No 29
22 July 2022
The elements that led to the Arab Spring are largely not present in SA’s socioeconomic and political reality, at least not yet.
Whilst there is an agreement that there could be some sort of protests due to a number of economic challenges including high cost of living, we doubt if SA could face an Arab Spring like revolution.
First, Arab Spring was a response to dictatorships and oppressive regimes in the Arab world. The main driver was that of toppling those governments; it was a democratic revolution against dictatorships.
South Africa had its own uprising in July 2022. We doubt whether there is an appetite for a repeat.
Second, South African government compared to those in the Middle East, is a democratically elected government. Therefore any revolution will require an “ANC endorsement” as a mass political movement representing the majority of the people of this country.
Moreover, an Arab Spring type revolution will have to be organised and led by a credible representation. There is no consensus on who that representation will be right now.
There is also likely to be a pushback from the ANC itself should there be an uprising of any sorts, particularly given factionalism within the party.
Furthermore, given the current politics particularly around the president, any multiparty/organisation formation to lead an “Arab Spring” type revolution could be viewed opportunistic.
Having said that, Afrasid cannot write-off, outright, a possibility of a popular uprising as a result of economic challenges and high cost of living. However it will be different to an Arab Spring.
Afrasid is available for analysis and commentary.
www.afrasid.org