The Brief, No 18
20 February 2022
Any country that ignores the current standoff between Russia and Ukraine will be doing so at its own peril.
The Prime Minister of the United Kingdom (UK), Boris Johnson, was perhaps correct when he said "Russia has plans for the biggest war since 1945". He therefore wants people to understand the "sheer costs in human life".
Indeed, the entire world will be impacted should the world superpowers go to war.
Russia has continually said it does not intend to invade Ukraine, or parts of Ukraine to be precise. It insists that amassing of hundreds of thousands of troops in the eastern boarder of Ukraine is part of its military drill taking place inside its territory.
However, it is important to note that Russia has been supporting separatists fighters in Ukraine since 2014 when it annexed Crimea. Leading to strong suspicions that troops outside the boarder of Ukraine are there for a reason.
Why is Russia amassing its army on its border with Ukraine?
Hereunder are some points that Afrasid surmise could be the reason:
1. Russia remains weary of Ukraine joining North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). Russia will therefore do whatever it takes to discourage and prevent any such advances.
2. Close relationships between Ukraine and the Western countries remain concerning to Russia. President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky is not only Western in his mannerism and culture, he is very close to Europe.
3. Russia wants Ukraine, as well as some of its neighbours on its western boarder such as Belarus and Georgia, to act as buffers in cases of war between itself and Europe.
4. Sizeable numbers of Ukrainians particularly in the east of the country , look to Russia for their cultural preservation and future political prospects. Most regard Kiev, (capital of Ukraine), to be hostile.
5. NATO regards Russia’s annexation of Crimea and support of pro-Russian fighters in the breakaway provinces of Luhansk and Donensk as a threat to its member states.
6. Putin still has aspirations of ruling over the "Grand Russia" which incorporates former Soviet territories.
Conclusion
It will be best for the entire world for Ukraine to remain non-aligned; neither to Russia nor NATO.
Russia is likely to walk over Ukraine should the war ensue. NATO led by the US is likely to hit Russia hard economically should that happen.
Besides possible augmentation of Ukraine's military arsenal, human and logistical infrastructure; the worst punishment to Russia will be the disconnection from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications (SWIFT). The suspension of SWIFT could trigger intra revolution in Russia against Putin particularly by the elite.
Therefore we conclude that stakes are simply too high for Russia to go to war with Ukraine and NATO.
However, Russia will intensify its support for pro Russian militias in Ukraine with an intention of eventually weakening Ukraine.
Afrasid is available for comment and analysis