The Brief, No 13
03 January 2022
The Prime Minister of Sudan, Abdullah Hamdok, has resigned.
Hamdok faced a tumultuous period as the Prime Minister of Sudan (2018-2022).
Hamdok, is the former deputy executive secretary at the United Nation Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) based in Addis Ababa.
His appointment as the Prime Minister of Sudan in 2018 was regarded by many as “one of the few processes in the history of Sudan that resembled the will of the people”.
What are the repercussions of his resignation:
1. Sudan faces an uncertain future. The military will have more power. In the absence of a credible electoral democratic process, the military is likely to appoint the next Prime Minister.
2. Notwithstanding continuing protests calling for the military to withdraw from government; the military’s withdrawal, if it was to happen, could lead to the collapse of the government and indeed rule of law in Sudan.
3. Importantly, any elections at this point in Sudan could lead to a military victory. They are the most organised in the country’s politics and are likely to participate in the elections through proxy.
4. The civilians consist of loosely organised formations and some weak opposition parties. Most in the civilian coalition do not have formal constituencies and come from diverse political backgrounds. They are unlikely to defeat a military backed political party.
4. The military has proposed to hold elections in Sudan in August 2023. Given the ongoing protests, the military is likely to amend the date of the proposed elections.
5. The ongoing protests are likely to gain momentum.
6. There are likely to be pro-military protests to counter the ongoing protests in Khartoum.
Afrasid is available for analysis and commentary