Issue No. 10
04 November 2021
Ethiopia has imposed a six months national state of emergency. The Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front’s (TPLF’s) militia group Tigray Defense Force (TDF) has joined forces with Oromia Liberation Army (OLA) to push back the advances of the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF). There are reports that both OLA and TDF are less than 30
Kilometres from Addis Ababa raising concerns that Addis Ababa might fall into the hands of these rebel forces.
Why is the situation concerning?
1. This could lead to other internal anti-government forces in Ethiopia to take arms against the government including the Ogoden forces.
2. Opportunistic external actors such as Egypt and Sudan might take advantage. Sudan has a border dispute with Ethiopia. Egypt and Sudan oppose the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in Ethiopia.
3. Addis Ababa is the seat of the African Union (AU). It could be embarrassing for the AU and Africa in general if the AU headquarters are forced to close as the result.
4. The collapse of Ethiopia’s government and its Defense forces, the most powerful force in the region, could lead to regional instability particularly in the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa. It might also resuscitate the “subdued” al Shabab in Ethiopia. That could disturb the maritime business in the Red Sea, Bab al Mandab , the Mediterranean, Suez Canal and the Indian Ocean.
5. It could endanger the lives of hundreds of African diplomats residing in Addis Ababa.
6. Finally, it could shield members of the TPLF from persecution; most of whom are accused of corruption and human rights abuses.