Issue no 9
25 October 2021
Sudan Military has arrested the country’s Prime Minister, Abdullah Hamdok and some high ranking members of his government.
Hereunder are some points worth noting as we try to understand the current situation in Sudan:
1. The role of external actors in Sudan must not be underestimated. The current interim hybrid government, made up of civilians and the military, recently recognised the state of Israel and enjoys close relations with the United Arab Emirates (UAE)
The UAE through Dubai Ports World (DP World) is seeking to dominate maritime business in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea. Israel on the other hand is set on its diplomatic expansionist project in Africa. There has been some opposition inside the Interim government regarding these two countries and their roles in Sudan.
2. Although Sudan has a strong civil society, it is not organised. Second, party politics in Sudan are almost non existent. Most political parties collapsed during the time of former President Omar al Bashir.
Therefore Sudan is not ready to hold elections even if it was to hold elections the military (party backed by the military) is likely to win.
3. The interim government is the best bet for Sudan right now. The military is now likely to call for elections which it might win.
5. The military is accusing the civilian part of the government of “betraying the revolution” by not attending to certain socioeconomic concerns.
6. Sudan is currently divided between those who want the interim government to dismantle and those, particularly in Khartoum, who want to see the retention of the status-quo. Amongst those who support the dismantling include Sayed Tirik, the chairperson of High Council for the Tribes of the Beja consisting of 6 major tribes from north eastern Sudan. They have been responsible for blockading shipment from the port of Sudan to major cities leading to the current political chaos.
6. Sudan seems set to follow the political footsteps of Egypt, whether through coincidence or by design. The civilian government in Egypt was installed and later forcibly replaced by the army who then jailed the democratically elected, President, Mohamad Morsi.
6. Important, the Sovereign Council of Sudan which overseas the interim government is led by Abdel Fattah al Burhan and his Deputy Mohamed Hamadan Dagalo both served in the government of Bashir. Dagalo is the leader of the Janjaweed who committed atrocities in Darfur.