Issue no. 3
19 July 2021
Ethiopia went ahead with the second filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) amidst resistance by Egypt and Sudan. What are the Implications:
1. The filling of the dam is likely to boost the image of PM Abiy Ahmad following accusations of human rights violations in Tigray region.
2. The filling of the dam is likely to move global attention from conflicts in Tigray and Amhara regions.
3. Egypt is likely to respond to what it calls “provocation” by supporting calls for sanctions and UN pressure on Ethiopia.
4. The AU, who has been side lined from finding a solutions in this regard, is likely to side with Ethiopia .
5. The UN like to continue playing a role in the standoff.
6. The 8 other Nile riparian states will continue supporting Ethiopia in this regard. Their support is mainly based on their own future ambitions on the use of the Nile.