Issue 1
24 June 2021
1. The situation in Ethiopia is likely to deteriorate after elections.
2. The support of Tigray People Liberation Front (TPLF) by the US, amongst others and the resumption of boarder dispute with Sudan is likey to stretch the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) capabilities and resources.
3. Ethiopia likely to suspend involvement in Africa Union Mission to Somalia (AMISOM) to fight Al Shabbab in neighboring Somalia.
4. The stand-off between Ethiopia on one hand and Sudan and Egypt on the other regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is likely to continue.