Twenty-two years on, scars of Mozambique's worst floods still haunt Gilda Muhate, a 60-year-old widow living with her five grandchildren. Their parents died in the 2000 floods in Chokwe City, located about 250 kilometres north of Mozambique's capital city Maputo.

Gilda Muhate has survived two consecutive floods of the year 2000 that killed over 700 and another one in 2013 that displaced 56,000 people. As a result, Gilda and other 500,000 displaced flood victims were evacuated to Chihaquelane village, a resettlement centre established by the local government about 30 km from Chókwè in Gaza Province to accommodate flood survivors.

"I came here because of the floods, first in 2000, then again in 2013." She paused. "In 2013, flood-displaced us again. We lost everything, properties, crops and our animals," She regretted.

Previously, Muhate relied on farming for her livelihood, but it was destroyed by flood. Although the government has allocated her a plot to farm at Chihaquelane village, where she now calls her home, she cannot cultivate because she is too old. Muhate abandoned farming and started cooking bean pastries every morning and sold them at a nearby roadside market to get money to pay fees for her grandchildren, who travel (6km) every day.

Chokwé district is an agricultural region with an area of 2,466 square kilometers and nearly 200 000 inhabitants. Chokwe town, the economic capital of Gaza Province, is prone to flood as it is located along the Limpopo River, the second largest African river that drains the Indian Ocean.

Lack of government support.

At Chihaquelane Village, flood victims gradually return to Chokwe despite the flood's threats and warnings. Salvador Fernando Matuassa, Chihaquelane Village secretary, blamed the government for neglecting the flood victims and not developing the area.

"Hunger and lack of other basic needs drove people back to Chokwe. Only a few remain, but the bulk is gone. Since its arrival more than twenty years ago, the camp has no water nor electricity," explains Matuassa

Due to limited government support, key infrastructures like hospitals and schools essential to these communities' survival are still unavailable. Matuassa says that the flood-affected victims complain about underdevelopment, but nothing happens. This forces them to return to their flood-prone homes around and within Chokwe to reclaim their fertile lands for food production and other income-generating activities despite flood risks and constant warnings.

"There is no secondary school in the area despite residents building three classrooms as their contribution towards an agreement with the government, who promised to build three more," Matuassa added.

Margarida Flavio, another flood victim, has been evacuated twice from the flood-prone Limpopo River banks but preferred going back to continue with her agricultural activities because the land is fertile and productive.

"They (government) told us to vacate, but I don't have money to build a new home. They made several promises, but nothing happened, so I prefer to die in flooding waters than in hunger," she said.

Like in many sub-Saharan African countries, long dry spells, severe flooding, and coastal storms have increased in frequency.

In march 2019, Cyclone Idai left a trail of destruction in Zimbabwe, Malawi, and Mozambique, with Mozambique the worst hit.

While five tropical storms and cyclones have battered Mozambique's northern coastal areas since the start of this year, villagers from the southern areas fear the uncertainty of alternating floods and drought invites.

An artisan fisher, Casimiro Cossa, said climate change has affected the availability of water and increased the flooding and drought events in the region.

"In 2000, I fled from rising water to Chihaquene, but I returned to Chokwe again. Here I make a living catching and selling fish." Cossa explained, "We want government projects that can contribute to improving the livelihoods of poor rural farmers in this region by providing additional knowledge and practical actions," he said.

The effects of the disaster are still visible. Agricultural land whose topsoil was swept away by soil erosion is now infertile. Matuassa says, "People plant but yield nothing because the land the government gave to the victims is unproductive. We can only grow cassava and beans here," pointing to yellow and drying maize.

The Chókwè Irrigation Scheme, located in the Limpopo River Basin, has seen declining crop yields mainly due to soil salinization and other practices, including poor water management.

Effort to rebuild

To rebuild and restore livelihood in the flood region, reconstruction of Mozambique's flagship tourism town of Chokwe city began early this year. Juvencio Pedro Novela, a Public Works official at Chokwe District Services for Infrastructure (DPS), says government  plans to build resilient houses.

"One thing is that we must make sure that public works and infrastructures meet a certain quota in terms of materials, construction methods", Novela explained.

While at the Chihaquelane resettlement center, Chokwe district administrator Eceu Muianga say that the government is trying to build infrastructure that provides essential services like electricity and water.

However, the agriculture-rich Xai Xai city Mayor, Emidio Xavier, says that despite establishing a committee on disaster risk management, nothing still seems to work.

Although Xavier attributes the flood event to the people constructing along the river banks, unattended clogged or destroyed canals, he agrees that the city needs to improve its monitoring system and implement the right projects on time.

Mozambique became a global success story of post-conflict economic recovery in southern Africa after a 16-year crippling war that ended in 1992. The war cost almost two million lives two decades earlier, brought the economy to its knees, and destroyed much of the country's infrastructure, roads, railways, and administrative posts.

Starting from this challenging base, Mozambique has seen average annual economic growth rates of five per cent since 1995 but remains extremely vulnerable to climate variability and change on the back of this commendable progress.

(This article was first published by Africa Climate News)

 About the author

Charles Mangwiro is a research Fellow at Africa Asia Dialogues (Afrasid) specialising in geopolitics of Mozambique.  He also serves as the editor of Radio Mozambique in Maputo, Mozambique. 

There is much said about the future of the governing party in South Africa, the African National Congress (ANC). There are some who have gone to an extent of calling for the disillusionment of the ANC. What is further amplifying these calls are widespread corruption allegations against the ANC and recently, the manner in which the provincial conferences of the organisation were managed, particularly in provinces of Kwa-Zulu Natal and Gauteng. The provincial conferences exposed several fault-lines in the political and human infrastructure of the organisation characterised by political factions within the organisation namely, Radical Economic Transformation(RET) forces and the Ramaphosa factions. The RET faction consists mainly of supporters of former President Jacob Zuma and some senior leadership of the organisation most of whom are accused of corruption and/or violations of organisational code of conduct. The Ramaphosa faction, as the name suggests consist of supporters of President Cyril Ramaphosa who is currently on the back foot following the Phalaphala scandal. Millions of US$ were apparently stolen from the Phalaphala residence of the president in the northern part of the country. The alleged theft has given political ammunition to the political opposition and enemies of the president, they have accused the president of money laundering.

There are views that factionalism within the ANC has divided the organisation , introduced toxicity and enmity within the organisation. Ordinarily, fierce political debates and disagreement are supposed to add vibrancy to intra-party democracy. However, what has emerged within the ANC are chaotic provincial conferences and deterioration of decorum resulting in the undermining of integrity of the organisation including its democratic processes. However, there are interesting views and interpretations to the current goings within the ANC that are worth examining.

First, the schism within the ANC is a common phenomenon in political parties in any democracy, such add life to internal democracy of political organisations. Moreover, constant pull and push in such situations is one of the essential traits that demonstrates democracy; what is happening within the ANC epitomizes maturity of democracy. Furthermore, contrary to prevailing general opinions on the need for unity; insistence on unity has proven, in some instances, to be a dangerous trapping to vibrant democracy. It could also be a precursor that leads to dictatorship. Organisations that have survived collapse are usually those that encourage dissent, accept clumsiness of democracy within their processes.

Therefore, besides chaotic conferences, toxicity and violence that is occasionally witnessed within the organisation; ANC is certainly reaching another stage of its life. It is an essential stage that will test the democratic shock absorbers of the organisation. It communicates an important fact, that disagreement and leadership contestations are healthy for democracy and the organisation.

What is emerging therefore as a result of the ongoing challenges in the party is the “Third Way” discussion. Third way is not a faction, rather a discussion, a process of renewal of the organisation intended to reinstate integrity, accountability and public respect of the organisation . The Third Way is best characterized by the leadership of outstanding individuals who are quietly and effectively working for the betterment of the people of South Africa . It is made up of second tier leadership of the organisation with implacable track record in the organisation and government.

Parks Tau, Khumbudzo Ntshaveni, Mmamoloko Kubayi, Sputla Ramokgopa are amongst those whose leadership characterise the Third Way and dominate the current discussion. They are young leaders who were inducted into the politics of the “movement” to eventually lead the organisation. Their future outlook of the organisation is informed by their intrinsic understanding of the fundamentals of the organisation.

Therefore, as the nomination process for the National Executive Committee (NEC) commences, it is important that the organisation considers the the outcomes and suggestions of the Third Way discussions. The process of NEC nomination must avoid the repeat of provincial conferences, which culminated in the inclusion of individuals with checkered pasts in provincial leadership. Former President Motlhanthe announced that there will be vetting processes and do’s and don’ts in the nomination process; that is essential for the success of the organisation. The organisation must carefully consider the Third Way particularly as it prepares itself for 2024 national elections.

Turkiye's Communications Directorate on Tuesday organised a panel on reform in the UN Security Council in Cape Town, Anadolu News Agency reports.

Moderated by Turkish scholar, Mursel Bayram, the panel brought together Turkish Professor, Suay Nilhan Acikalin, South African economist, William Gumede and Daryl Swanepoel, head of the South Africa-based civil society group, Inclusive Society Institute.

The panel kicked off with a video message from Turkiye's Communications Director, Fahrettin Altun.

Altun said the UN has made significant contributions to peace and stability in various geographies of the world since its establishment.

However, he said the UN Security Council needs reform.

The UN has found itself in desperate straits in the face of recent human tragedies and wars, Altun said.

Zaheer Laher, the acting Chief Director of the UN Peace and Security's Department of International Relations and Cooperation (DIRCO), also attended the panel via video-conference and said Turkiye and South Africa have a similar approach on UN reform.

"As South Africa, we attach great importance to the development of peace and security, human rights, democracy, justice and the rule of international law in the international arena," Laher added.

Noting that a significant part of the Security Council agendas included the conflicts in Africa, Laher also said that the continent is represented by only temporary members in the Council.

"Africa and Latin America should be represented permanently in the UN Security Council," he said.

For his part, Gumede drew attention to the inequality of the current global system dominated by industrialised countries. "We can say that some countries are more equal in the rule of law in this system," he said.

"In this moment of great uncertainty in an evolving world, we need change in the global system," he added.

Swanepoel stressed it is impossible for the UN to remain unaffected by the geopolitical and economic transformations experienced in the last 77 years.

He argued that if the UN wants to be inclusive, it must do so not only in terms of geographical membership, but also in terms of geopolitical orientation and cultural influence.

"There is a worldwide perception that this organisation is not doing enough to suppress and resolve conflicts. In fact, the UN is paralyzed by the interests of its competing members," he added.

Also speaking at the panel, Turkish academic, Acikalin, said the Security Council could not meet the expectations of the international system in this chaotic environment.

She stressed the "need to produce solutions with systems that cover the whole of the world and the international community and that work effectively."

This article first appeared on the Middle East Monitor

China’s economy is heavily dependent on the growth of the housing market. It is the third largest contributor to the national GDP, with some estimating the residential property market contributions at between 17% to 29%. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) estimates that in 2020 direct investment in real estate was $1.8 trillion and contributed 7.4% to the GDP. In addition, the National Bureau of Statistics estimated that the construction industry, which is strongly predicated on the property market, contributed a further $1.15 trillion, which was 7.2% of the 2020 GDP. 

However, not only is the Chinese economy reliant on the real estate market, but individual households are too. The importance and prevalence of home ownership in China are two-fold. Culturally, it is perceived as a prerequisite for marriage, particularly for men. It is also a symbol of economic stability.  Consequently, China has the highest rate of home ownership in the world, at around 90%. Moreover, home ownership in China is an important marker of middle-class status, with the Chinese real estate market accounting for roughly 70% of Chinese personal wealth. Given the soaring property market prices, high resale value and the absence of property tax, many regard buying a second or third home as a wise financial investment. These factors have compounded, resulting in inflated residential housing prices.

To make matters worse, a lack of available housing, especially in large cities, has escalated housing prices even higher. Inversely, housing shortages are not a national phenomenon. In rural areas newly developed projects are sometimes left uninhabited as people migrate to the cities. 

The three red lines policy

Most Chinese home buyers purchase homes off plan from housing development projects, and developers then use this money to fund multiple housing projects simultaneously. These pre-sold homes account for between 70% to 80% of new home sales. Bank Group ANZ estimates that almost $220 billion worth of mortgage loans are tied up in developing projects. As a result, property development companies are some of the biggest drivers of the economy. According to NBS commercial housing sales grew from $914 billion in 2011 to $2.7 trillion in 2020 at an annual growth rate of 21.8%. 

The largest source of income for property developers comes from deposits and pre-sales of homes still under development. In 2020, developers raised over $1 trillion from these sources alone. Additionally, developers rely on credit to enable their projects, speculatively spending to complete their housing projects. In 2020 the property development sector borrowed more than $419 billion in domestic loans, accumulating over $5.2 trillion in  debt by June 2021. In response to mounting debt from property developers, the Chinese government introduced the three red lines policy in August 2020 to decrease lending.

The policy emerged from a symposium between the PBOC, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and China’s largest property developers, Evergrande Group, Vanke and Country Garden. The name of the policy refers to the three prerequisites for a company’s balance sheet;“ The asset to liability ratio must be greater than 70%, net debt to equity ratio must be less than 100%, and cash to short-term borrowings ratio must be less than one.” In addition, the government requires that all three project developers attain the stipulated debt reduction mandate by June next year. The three red lines policy aims “ to reduce leverage, increase liquidity, and mitigate financial risks associated with heavy debt refinancing strategies.”

Implementation of the policy has been detrimental to China’s property market. The debt reduction measures applied by the policy were the cause of property development company Evergrande Group defaulting on debt repayments, in turn halting construction on a number of their real estate projects. As a result, the balance sheets for project developers have continued to deteriorate. In 2020, property developers defaulted on $3.4 billion worth of bonds, shooting up to $7.1 billion, or 27% of all bond repayments, in 2021. In response, angry homebuyers are refusing to pay the mortgage on homes that are not completed.

The mortgage boycott

The Chinese nationwide mortgage boycott commenced in mid-July 2022 when a letter addressed to the Evergrande property developer group, which had made the most significant corporate default China has ever seen in December 2021, gained immense public attention. The letter was signed by 100 homeowners from the incomplete Dynasty Mansion project. The letter threatened that “All homebuyers with outstanding mortgage loans will stop paying” unless construction resumes before 20 October 2022. The letter quickly made its rounds on social media platforms such as Douyin and WeChat, garnering widespread support. Within four weeks, the letter became the boycott template for many other angry buyers of incomplete housing projects. Homeowners from over 320 projects in 100 Chinese cities have co-signed the boycott. 

The possible inability of project developers to deliver homes has shaken market confidence, triggering plummeting property values and sales. What this means for the broader Chinese economy remains to be seen.

What is Beijing doing about the crisis?

The complaints of protesters have spurred President Xi Jinping to order the completion of several housing projects across the country, with state-owned financial institutions being called to foot the bill. The three red lines policy has been eased, giving project developers more room to refinance their projects. The government has also committed to decreasing some lender liabilities and increasing their debt by 5%.

While many analysts believe that the measures taken by the government will inject finance into the market in the short term. However, it might not reverse the downward trajectory of the property sector. 

While the mortgage boycott appears to have had some success, China’s low tolerance for dissent has seen censors active on several social media platforms, scrubbing posts, silencing protesters and banning document-sharing links. Should the mortgage boycott become more than merely a social movement, it could be the seed of a much more contentious issue for the Chinese economy. 

The panicked resignation and departure of Sri Lankan president Gotabaya Rajapaksa and his brother, prime minister Mahinda Rajapaksa, amid mass protests has drawn global attention to the nation’s economic collapse.

Several compounding factors led to this collapse: tax cuts, a nationwide policy shift towards organic farming and the COVID-19 pandemic. The government has particularly blamed the pandemic, given that tourism is one of Sri Lanka’s biggest earners. But most critics have pointed the finger unerringly at one factor: economic mismanagement by President Rajapaksa.

At the end of the civil war in 2009, Sri Lanka decided to focus on providing goods to its domestic market instead of trying to bolster foreign trade. This meant that the bill for imports kept growing as its income from exports remained low. At the end of 2019, Sri Lanka possessed $7.6bn in foreign reserves; that number has dwindled to roughly $250 million. Sri Lanka now exports $2 billion more than it imports, further exhausting its foreign currency reserves. Rajapaksa’s tax cuts in 2019 lost the government an additional $1.4 billion in revenue. To make matters worse, in early 2021 when Sri Lanka’s foreign currency reserves became a serious problem, the government tried to save it by banning imports of chemical fertilizer, telling farmers to use locally sourced organic fertilizer instead. This led to widespread crop failure. The government was forced to supplement its food supply with imports, ultimately exhausting its foreign currency reserves.

Sri Lanka is bankrupt. It does not have enough foreign currency to pay for imported critical goods such as food, fuel and medicines. Inflation is up by 50% and, in May 2022, Sri Lanka defaulted on its foreign debt payment for the first time. The South Asian nation’s bank declared that it was now in a “pre-emptive default”. Defaults occur when a nation cannot make payments to some or all of its creditors. This, in turn, tarnishes the country’s image and reputation, ruining its future potential investments, currency and economy. 

China has been identified as a villain in this sad story. Between the years 2000 and 2020, China loaned about $12 billion to the Sri Lankan government, making Beijing, Sri Lanka’s sole majority creditor: 10% of Sri Lanka's debt comes from Chinese loans. The loans funded large-scale infrastructural projects including a port facility in the Rajapaksas’ hometown of Hambantota. Control of the port was remanded to China after Sri Lanka realised it could no longer make its loan payments. This forces one to pose the question, are developing nations are naively mortgaging off their resources and strategic assets to China? To many critics, it was confirmation of China’s imperial agenda and demonstrated the pitfalls of Chinese funding: that despite the absence of absolute political conditionality, there are certainly “strings attached” that may pose a threat to the sovereignty of a nation. Regardless, Sri Lanka opted for this path rather than going through the strenuous process of a debt restructuring dialogue with the IMF, and rigorous measures to appease the Paris Club.

Instead, it fell into what creditors are calling China’s “debt trap” diplomacy, a predatory system that traps and confines a country into a debt straightjacket. For years experts have been warning low to middle income economies against China’s “debt-trap diplomacy”, yet with the help of friendly heads and the lure of large scale investments, China managed to bag billions worth of dollars under its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) from vulnerable nations. In 2020 Sri Lanka received a stream of $3 billion in easy credit from China to help pay some of its creditors. Unfortunately for Sri Lanka, in recent years, following a contraction in its economy, China has focused on mass debt collection rather than lending. Going to China instead of the IMF now appears to have been Sri Lanka’s greatest downfall. “Instead of making use of the limited reserves we had and restructuring the debt in advance, we continued to make debt payments until we ran out of all of our reserves,” Ali Sabry, Sri Lanka’s caretaker finance minister from April to May, told the Wall Street Journal. “If (we) had been realistic, we should have gone [to the IMF] at least 12 months before we did.”

China is not Sri Lanka’s only lender. India and Japan are also creditors, both accounting for a considerable amount of Sri Lanka’s debt. Both nations are now engaged in talks about further repayments and aid. However, China’s political involvement in Sri Lanka points towards something much deeper than mere debt. China actively supported the powerful Rajapaksa brothers’ political ideals and policies. The blatant mismanagement of state resources and funds that ultimately led to Sri Lanka’s bankruptcy transpired in full view of its majority creditor, China. It will be interesting to see how Beijing, holding the fate of a vulnerable nation in its hands, will proceed.

About the author

Qhawezo Ayesha Fakude is a Researcher at Africa Asia Dialogues (Afrasid).  She holds a Bachelor of Social Science from the University of Cape Town, South Africa. She majored in politics and governance, anthropology and sociology.