Introduction
The United States’ (US) decision to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan will have far-reaching implications for the people of Afghanistan and the region. It is also likely to impact on the credibility and standing of the US in the world. . There has been high levels of corruption which many people in Afghanistan attribute to the apparent low moral within the country’s security forces. Many also believe it was the low moral within the security forces which led to the swift collapse of the government. The collapse of the government in Afghanistan has raised concerns about the “success of the decade long democratic process” in that country. This article will examine the history and formation of the Taliban, it will look at its past demise and expulsion from power. It will interrogate the current developments and immediate challenges faced by the government. It will conclude by suggesting steps that could produce political stability, at least in the short term, in Afghanistan.
Brief History of the Taliban
The Taliban is one of those organisation that cannot be understood without closely looking at its history. The Soviet Union occupied Afghanistan from 1979 to 1989. When the occupation ended, there were high levels of crime and corruption in Afghanistan. From 1989 to 2001 Afghanistan was engaged in a civil war between the People’s Democratic Party of Afghanistan (PDPA) and the Mujahedeen. Mujahedeen received assistance from a number of countries including the US and Pakistan. Most Mujahedeen were education in Pakistan. Their main objective “was to provide peace and security to the local population, institute justice and to implement Sharia Islamic law in Afghanistan” and to bring back safety and security in Afghanistan. The Mujahedeen adopted conservative interpretation of Sunni Islam and exercised unrestrained violence against other sectarian and ethnic groups. They also vowed to fight all forms of foreign occupation in Afghanistan. In 1994, a local cleric, Mullah Muhammad Omar together with his followers in Kandahar formed a group called the Taliban, meaning students in Pashtun language. Subsequently, the majority of the Mujahedeen joined Taliban.
In 1996 the Taliban captured Kabul and declared Afghanistan an Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. They were in power from 1996 to 2001. During that time, Afghanistan experienced “one its darkest chapters in history”. Their strict interpretation of Islam involved forbidding women from doing professional work, banning girls from going to school and forcing men to grow beard. They also carried out severe punishments, including public beatings, hangings of civilians who violated their code of conduct. They also destroyed important historical symbols and heritage sites. Notwithstanding immense international pressure, the Taliban blew up two 1500-year-old massive Buddha statues carved into a mountains of Bamiyan in Afghanistan. They argued at the time that the “statues were forms of idols, a practice prohibited by Islam”. They also carried out political assassinations including that of Dr. Najibullah, a pro-Soviet Union political leader and former President of Afghanistan. They were also involved in the assassination of the Northern Alliance leader, Ahmad Shah Masoud. However what brought the Taliban to prominence globally was its hosting and protection of the leader of Al Qaeda, Osama Bin Laden. Bin Laden, was killed by the US special forces in May 2011. He was accused of planning and financing the terrorists attacks which killed thousands of people in the US on September, 11, 2001. After September 11, 2001 attacks, the US demanded that the Taliban surrender Bin Laden to face the consequences of his crimes, the Taliban refused. On 07 October 2001, the US and its allies invaded Afghanistan, an event which in hindsight is regarded as one of the worse tragedies of our times..
Current Developments
The US and the Taliban negotiated peace agreement in Doha, in February 2020. The agreement has culminated into some significant changed in Afghanistan. The situation has been in a tail spin by virtue of actions of different actors. At the beginning of July 2021, “the Taliban controlled 90 districts in comparison to 141 districts controlled by the government, while 167 remained uncontested”. The unwillingness of Ashraf Ghani’s government to enter into a meaningful dialogue with the Taliban paved a way for a zero-sum contest between Afghanistan National Security Forces (ANSF) and the Taliban. After assuming office, President Joe Biden, made it clear that he was going to remain committed to President Trump’s timeline to withdraw the US troops from Afghanistan. The air power and other logistical support by the US granted Afghanistan’s forces a critical leverage over the Taliban and to an extent overestimated the ANSF’s ability in their fight against the Taliban. The government of Afghanistan therefore never felt compelled to engage the Taliban under an inclusive intra-Afghanistan dialogue. Consequently, when it became clear that the advancing and confident Taliban was about to enter the gates of Kabul, it became difficult for the government to engage nor negotiate a peaceful transition. “At the beginning of August, 2021, the momentum swung in Taliban’s favour, as the government lost control of two-thirds of Afghanistan’s territory”. The fall of Kabul, the capital city of Afghanistan, led into a frenzy as many country representatives rushed to evacuate their personnel and citizens from the country. Some embassies opted to shut down their offices fearing reprisal from the Taliban. The Taliban has indicated that it will have an inclusive government. It has also undertaken to grant general amnesty to all members of the former government and those who were “deemed enemies” during the war. Notwithstanding those undertakings, aberrations from that course by the Taliban continue unabated. There are suggestions that the nature of the Taliban i.e. their decentralized structures, contributes to these aberrations. Others blame elements of ill disciple amongst some of the foot soldiers of the Taliban.
Challenges moving forward
The Taliban announced the cabinet early in September 2021 which consists mainly of its members. Meanwhile, the National Coordination Council (NCC) headed by former President Hamid Karzai and former Chief Executive Abdullah-Abdullah were negotiating with different leaders of the Taliban for an inclusive government. These efforts are supported by Pakistan. The Foreign Minister of Pakistan, Shah Mehmood Qureshi, has assured Pakistan’s facilitative role towards the Afghanistan peace process and has stressed the importance of an inclusive and representative government in Afghanistan.
Although the current situation in Afghanistan is still very fluid and very hard to predict any specific outcomes. There are still fears that more terrorist attacks from the Islamic State in Syria and the Levant – Khorasan (ISIL-K) are likely to continue. ISIL-K is undoubtedly the major threat to peace and stability in Afghanistan and the region. Notwithstanding, there are certain key steps that the Taliban must embark upon to ensure political stability at least in a short term in Afghanistan. First, the Taliban must ensure that all political stakeholders; including ethnic and religious minorities, are part of the political and reconciliation process. The Prime Minister of Pakistan, Imran Khan, “proposed at the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s Head of State meetings to reaching out to Pashtun and Taliban factions for the inclusive government. He has also asked his Tajik counterpart to do the same in wooing the Tajiks to reconcile their differences with the Taliban”. Second, the Taliban must also work to integrate its forces with that of the ANDF including, the Northern Alliance. The Northern Alliance has been fighting the Taliban and has vowed to resist the government of the Taliban. Third, the Taliban has to ensure the promotion of basic human rights and liberties including and particularly those of women and girls. Fourth, out of 33 members of the cabinet, 14 are on the list of UN sanctions list. The Taliban must ensure that members of “the Taliban 2.0” are removed from the UN sanctions list and that the organisation is declassified as the terrorist organisation. Simply put, in order to attract investments into Afghanistan and establish new relationship with the international community, the Taliban must prove that it has reformed. It will have to give assurances to the international community that it has severed all ties with the terrorists groups and will cease to host Al Qaeda. Finally, the Taliban must ensure that it brings to line radical elements within its ranks particularly those who are still clinging to a strict version of Islam. These are key considerations for the Taliban if it wants to succeed in governing and winnin support of all people of Afghanistan.
About the author
Afeera Firdous is a Research Lead at Pakistan. Now, a digital media channel. She previously worked with Center for International Strategic Studies (CISS) as Associate Research Officer for three and a half years. She holds M.Phil. in Strategic Studies from National Defence University Islamabad. She has worked on various strategic and policy issues including counter extremism and counter terrorism, nuclear issue specifically in South Asian region, cyberspace, and information warfare.