Just before Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February, Chinese President Xi Jinping and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin renewed their vows of friendship. In a lengthy statement the countries vowed to “stand against attempts by external forces to undermine security and stability in their common adjacent regions and the intend to counter interference by outside forces in the internal affairs of sovereign countries under any pretext”.
More than a month on, Russia faces ever-more global condemnation and economic sanctions – including being shut out of the Swift financing system. China, meanwhile, stands to benefit from the ongoing war in its own quest to stand against American or western domination. This quest is at the heart of Sino-Russia relations, which are largely underpinned by shared determination to create an economic and social order that would suit their interests best and, to use their own term, have Chinese or Russian characteristics. China showed that it is prepared to create such an order when it availed it alternative financial systems and its social media platform, Weibo, to Russia in the wake of global restrictions. Both nations are also committed to “de-dollarisation” so they can avoid any punitive financial measures taken by the Americans. There is already close cooperation between Russia and China’s central banks. This offers Russia access to its foreign reserves in the Chinese currency which remains untouchable by the west.
The two nations are tight trading partners. Russia is China's biggest supplier of resources, including petroleum products and wood, while China provides the majority of Russia’s electrical and electronic equipment needs. Russia has also committed itself to becoming a crucial part of China’s Belt and Road initiative. Bilateral trade hit a record annual high of more than $146 billion in 2021, up from less than $16 billion in 2003 and nearly $110 billion in 2020; Russia serves as a major source of China’s oil, coal, natural gas, and agricultural imports.
The countries’ union is not just economic. Diplomatically, they seek to build new international organisations.
But Beijing will be aware that it needs to tread carefully as the Ukraine war continues and global backlash deepens. Its close relationship with Russia may see it face sanctions, too. By standing with Russia, China risks damage to its reputation and its economy. Having only recently emerged from a trade war with the US, and still grappling with the economic implications of Covid-19, China knows the last thing it needs is to get inextricably bound up in a conflict that somebody else initiated.
Close to mid-2022, President Xi is set convince 20th Party Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, to divorce succession tradition and abolish term limits, giving him a third go in office. As would expected with any political organization before any watershed convergence such as this, discontent is already rearing its ugly, especially, amongst the middle-class and well-off Chinese.
This group would rather have Xi concentrate on addressing domestic problems such growing air pollution in Guangzhou, contaminated drinking water and factory spills of toxic chemical in Shanxi Province, as opposed to shipping focus and attention a cross the border to the Russian-Ukraine crisis. If Xi doesn't give these so-perceived kingmakers, it could be costly and detrimental to his plans of becoming the most powerful Chinese leader, ever.
Through the much-praised BRI China diplomatically projects herself as a sound, reliable and non-interfering trade partner who respects territorial integrity and governance architecture of all nations, and its open support for the non-silencing of guns in Ukraine could be a slap in the face of that status in the global village. This is more so, to the close to 54 African nations, who not so long ago themselves just tasted freedom from the claws of oppression, colonialism and political depression.
It will, however, be loathed if it is to entirely desert Russia in its hour of need. The answer here lies in China stepping up as a peace broker between Russia and Ukraine and aiding the two nations to carve a solution through negotiations.
This is perhaps why the tone of China’s public statements has shifted from siding outright with Putin and the Kremlin to encouraging all diplomatic efforts and offering to play a constructive role in promoting the de-escalation of the situation in Ukraine.
Meanwhile, there are increasing fears from America and Europe that China may see the war in Ukraine as an opportunity to occupy Taiwan, which it believes is an integral part of China. These concerns will likely keep Russia and China close: China needs Russia if it is to move against Taiwan.
Russia has in the past pledged its support for a one-China policy which dictates that Taiwan is an inalienable part of the Chinese territory and has given China its word that it would respect this position by not engaging officially with Taiwan. The US, however, says it remains committed to Taiwan’s independence and sovereignty; it will continue to oppose any unilateral changes to the status quo in the best interest of the people of Taiwan.
Be that as it may, the recent dispatching of top US security defence and diplomatic assets to Taiwan is indicative that the world will not stand by and watch China invade and take over that island nation, hence signalling a stern warning to Xi and his forces not to attempt. This is strongly so because, unlike with Ukraine, Taiwan is part of what has been termed "first island chain," which according to history is a conglomerate of islands that are fraternal with the US and its foreign policy focus.
China would therefore not dare taint its standing in the world with invading Taiwan at a time it is crucial for its global trade partners to grow and subsequently the dominance and performance of Chinese products on shelves around the globe.
About the author
Jemima Beukes is a Research Fellow at Afrasid based in Namibia, Windhoek. She is the co-founder of Women in the Media. She holds a Bachelor of Journalism and Communication Technology degree. She is a senior political journalist at Namibia Media Holdings.