For many countries in the Middle East, October and November’s United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) summit in Glasgow revealed a reality at the heart of climate change: they are not chiefly responsible for the problem, but will be badly affected by it.
The evidence suggests that global warming will do the Middle East no favours. For an early example of the phenomenon’s damaging power, it is timely to look no further than Syria. Climate change caused the generational drought that preceded the ongoing civil war there. That drought drove rural farmers into urban centers like Damascus and Aleppo, priming the populace for concentrated, large-scale political unrest.
As climate change causes rapid temperature increases, food shortages, and economic pain elsewhere, more Middle Eastern countries might tip over into bloodshed. Relatedly, climate change has helped fuel civil war and conflict across the Middle East, including in Syria, Libya and Yemen.
In Tehran, between 4,000 and 5,000 residents lose their lives per year due to air pollution. According to a report by the World Bank published in April 2019, Tehran is ranked 12th among 26 megacities in terms of ambient PM10 levels. After Cairo, Tehran is the most polluted non-Asian megacity.
Energy sources, mainly water, have also become a reason for direct conflict between Middle Eastern countries. Nearly every country in the Middle East, from Morocco to Iran, shares water resources with a neighbour; some have little freshwater of their own. Therefore, a proxy war between Egypt and Sudan and between Turkey and Syria could become a frequent feature of Middle Eastern politics as water becomes even more scarce.
As an another example, it is at the heart of the siege of Gaza — the River Jordan is one of the biggest problem between Israel and the Palestinians. According to Amnesty International, one of the most devastating consequences of this water conflict is the impact of Israel’s discriminatory policies on Palestinians’ access to adequate supplies of clean and safe water. As a result of continuous restrictions, many Palestinian communities in the West Bank have no choice but to purchase water brought in by trucks at extremely high prices ranging from 4 to 10 USD per cubic metre. In some of the poorest communities, water expenses can, at times, account for half of a family’s monthly income.
Over the years, water has also brought Iraq, Syria and Turkey to the brink of war over their shared rivers, the Euphrates and the Tigris. Water, it is clear, matters as much as land.
There is some hopeful news. last November, Egypt and the UAE were selected as host countries for COP27 and COP28, respectively. The question, of course, is whether these opportunities will help mitigate against the destructive effects of climate change in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, or offer a platform to stabilise its water wars. Of course the events themselves are a cure for the economic hegemony of climate change – they are not the end of the road, but part of the journey. Hosting the events gives the region momentum.
Already, there have been positive signs. After COP26, Qatar rapidly started to focus on its own local energy sources to fight against climate change. The world's largest exporter of liqufied natural gas (LNG) announced its decision to pull out of OPEC, ending nearly 60 years of membership of the international oil producers' cartel. The withdrawal from OPEC did not mean that Qatar was getting out of the oil business altogether; it was simply withdrawing from an organisation that governs oil markets.
According to McKinsey “Global Gas Outlook to 2050”, the world is witnessing a new global energy transformation: LNG, it argues, will not only show resilience but will also be the fastest-growing fossil fuel between 2020 and 2035. Qatar can use its LNG status to adopt technology that offers energy alternatives; given that its geographic location places it at serious risk from climate change, it has no time to lose in transforming its energy sector.
To sum up, it is clear that COPS27 and 28 will be a platform for Arab people, and especially for the youth, who have been vocal on this topic, to be heard. Regionally, it is a time for climate activists to showcase what they have been doing on the ground. Many youths don’t get media coverage internationally. It will be a good oppourtunity for local people to be seen to be responding to pressure to act not only from the west, but from within their own region. People in the Middle East share some of the west’s problems – a lack of water, a collapse of ecosystems. Now, it is time to share the solutions.
About the Author
Elif Selin Calik is a Research Fellow at Africa Asia Dialogues (Afrasid). She holds a PhD from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS). She is a regular contributor to publications like TRT World, Daily Sabah, Rising Powers in Global Governance and Hurriyet Daily News. She was one of the founders of the In-Depth News Department of Anadolu News Agency.