Egypt has reached an agreement with Lebanon to export natural gas to the country in the first quarter of 2022.
The agreement was announced to the to the public by the US State Department's senior advisor for global energy security, Amos Hochstein. The announcement was a clear indication that the plan was essentially a US construct, a measure designed to decrease the impact of Lebanon's economic free-fall.
Apart from an overarching dominance of Hezbollah, whose prolonged regional wars have stifled economic growth, Lebanon's latest political nightmare has been further exacerbated by the energy and electricity crisis. The state owned electric company, Electricité du Liban, has been overwhelmed. There has been a complete shutdown of the country's electricity grid after two main power stations ran out of fuel.
According to Bel Trew, a Beirut-based journalist, “Lebanon has zero state power, the entire country is running on private generators. The generators are prohibitively expensive; my last month's bill was 3.75 million Lira which is $2,500 on official rate and about $250 on the black market. How is the airport running? What about hospitals?".
Whilst Lebanon continues to experience the energy crisis, it is also engaged in a bitter dispute with Israel over the East Mediterranean's energy reserves. Attempts to resolve the maritime border dispute between Lebanon and Israel are in a state of constant flux. In 2019, Lebanon refused to sign the East Mediterranean Forum Agreement sponsored by Israel. On the other hand, US is one of the main sponsors of the proposed gas pump from Egypt. This has given rise to a number of questions regarding the US’s power broking role in the region, particularly in forcing Lebanon into negotiations with Israel on East Mediterranean maritime boarder dispute. The unwillingness of Lebanon to enter into discussions with Israel on East Mediterranean energy reserves is because the country is still technically at war with Israel.
The US, it appears, is prepared to help Lebanon in return for certain political benefits. Ultimately, the US’s assistance to Lebanon will benefit Israel by providing a soft landing in the negotiations with Lebanon on East Mediterranean maritime boarder dispute. Second, it is likely to increase political influence of the US in Lebanon. For the US, it is also vital to support the "wave of normalisation" between Israel and Arab states, Lebanon being one of the Arab states. Last September, when Ambassador Dorothy Shea met with the energy ministers of Lebanon, Jordan, Syria and Egypt, she said “her country had a plan through which Washington would facilitate energy payments to Cairo, on behalf of Beirut, using World Bank assistance funds budgeted for Lebanon”. After that statement was made, President Michel Aoun of Lebanon, boasted that “Lebanon's electricity crisis was soon coming to an end”. Third and most important, the easing of energy problems in Lebanon will certainly ease economic difficulties, which could mean strengthening of relations between Lebanon and Egypt and importantly improved political imagery of the US not only in Lebanon but also in the region.
Syria will also benefit from the agreement. According to the agreement, Egyptian natural gas pipeline to Lebanon will via through Jordan and Syria. This will assist to alleviate electricity output challenges of all countries concerned. Furthermore, the agreement could further facilitate easing of tensions between the government of Lebanon and Syria. The flip side is that Hezbollah, Syria’s closest ally, in Lebanon could gain additional power in the country’s politics. In conclusion, by using the electricity crisis as a tool of conflict resolution, Washington stands to gain a huge mediating role between Israel and Lebanon not only in the East Mediterranean energy dispute, also in other areas of disagreements. Secondly, the inclusion of Syria in the process would in effect recognise and grant support to Assad’s regime. Lest we forget, Syria under the presidency of Bashar al Assad, is responsible for killing more than 500,000 people during in the last 11 years.
(This article was first published by the Middle East Monitor on 25 December 2021)
About the Author
Elif Selin Calik is a Research Fellow at Africa Asia Dialogues (Afrasid). She holds a PhD from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS). She is a regular contributor to publications like TRT World, Daily Sabah, Rising Powers in Global Governance and Hurriyet Daily News. She was one of the founders of the In-Depth News Department of Anadolu News Agency.