Is Taiwan on the brink of being Colonized for the Seventh Time?
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Is Taiwan on the brink of being Colonized for the Seventh Time?

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Taiwan, formally known as the Republic of China, is an island located to the southeast of mainland China, separated by the Taiwan Strait. It is about an eighth the size of Poland and is home to 23 million people. It has also, in recent years and amid escalating global geo-political tensions, been subjected to sometimes damaging political and military interest from Beijing.

The island has a long history of colonisation: the Dutch (1624-1662), the Spanish (1626-1642), the Zheng family (1662-1683), the Manchus (1683-1895), the Japanese (1895-1945) and finally, the authoritarian Chinese Nationalist regime (1945-1988) (1) have all colonised Taiwan.

The Dutch brought large numbers of Han Chinese to the island as labour for deer and agricultural exports. Following the defeat of the Han Ming dynasty by the Manchu Qing dynasty in 1644, Taiwan became a base for the Ming dynasty's recovery. The Dutch were driven out of Taiwan in 1662 with the aid of Zheng Cheng-gong, the son of a revered pirate and Ming Chinese official. Cheng-gong thereafter became Taiwan’s ruler. Subsequently, Zheng Cheng-gong made the first Han-backed regime and introduced Chinese administration to Taiwan;  Tainan, now Tainan City, was an administrative centre (2). Zheng Cheng-gong’s rule expanded the Chinese population and Chinese culture became dominant in most parts of the island.

The Spanish were not as successful during their Taiwanese rein as the Spanish had been. They were forced to retreat in 1642 due to Dutch and aboriginal pressures. The Dutch, during this time, supported the Chinese colonialists with military and administrative structures. Zheng Cheng-gong continued to support the Ming and opposed the Manchus until he died in 1662. However, Zheng’s support of the Ming dynasty was mostly for show: Zheng and the Ming administration, the Yung-li court, rarely spoke, leaving Zheng free to do as he pleased in his kingdom. The Ming’s absence from Taiwan gave Zheng ample flexibility and independence to pursue his interests.

The question of Taiwan’s sovereignty - and China’s claims that it certainly was not an independent state - stems in part from the Manchu period. The Manchu kingdom was twice the size of the Ming. Mainland China, in essence, was a colony itself, quite similar to India for the British Empire (3). The Manchu ruled Taiwan differently from China. Taiwan’s rule was loose, minimal and partial (4); for example, the American consul to Amoy, Charles LeGrendre, signed a treaty in 1867 with the Taiwan aboriginal Chief, not the Manchu government (5). Taiwan was Manchu, not Chinese.

Following Japan’s defeat in World War Two, in 1945 the Republic of China took over Taiwan on behalf of the allied forces and established the Taiwan Provincial Governor’s Office (6). The story of the inseparable link from Taiwan to China stemmed from the colonial Kuomintang (KMT) government based in Nanjing (1945-1949). Neither the KMT government nor the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) claimed Taiwan until 1942 (7). Then, in 1949, assertions of Taiwan’s link to mainland China emerged loudly from both Taipei and Beijing.

In more recent years, Beijing has labelled Taiwan a renegade province (8). Beijing asserts that there is only “one China” (9). The People’s Republic of China (PRC), declares itself to be the sole legitimate government of China, based on the “one-China principle” (10). The KMT-drafted constitution describes China, Mongolia, Taiwan, Tibet and the South China Sea as part of the Republic of China. Furthermore, Beijing claims that democratic Taiwan is bound by a 1992 consensus. The consensus, noted by the KMT and the ruling CCP, states that Taiwan agreed to be ruled by China. However, Taiwan disputes the contents of the consensus and says that it was never designed to question Taiwan’s legitimacy or legal status (11).

The current leaders of Taiwan, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), also refute the consensus. Since the induction of Taiwan’s democratically elected President Tsai Ing-wen in 2016, China has displayed escalating aggression towards Taiwan, including flying fighter jets close to the island. Still, President Tsai has refused the formula of her predecessor, Ma Ying-jeou, which endorsed cross-strait ties with China (12). In a 2019 speech by Chinese President Xi Jinping, China reiterated its long-standing proposal for Taiwan to be incorporated into China under its “one country, two systems” formula (13). Quite similar to Hong Kong, the formula provides the ability for a territory to preserve its political and economic systems, with a high degree of autonomy (14). However, the formula is grossly unpopular in Taiwan – especially given Chinese crackdowns on Hong Kong’s freedoms. Both Tsai and the MKT have rejected the “one country, two systems” formula.

Globally, meanwhile, Taiwan has drawn praise for its peaceful and successful transition from authoritarian rule to a democracy. Taiwan is a poster child for the “third wave” of democracy which occurred in the 1980s and 90s; it receives regular praise from the US (15). In electing to force the “one country, two governments model” (16), China would ultimately destroy a democratic government.

There is major economic pressure at play, too. Taiwan’s economy is highly dependent on its trade with mainland China. Due to Beijing’s pressures on the island and Taiwanese officials’ growing concern about the nation’s over-reliance on China (17), Taiwan has been branching out and decreasing its trade with China. During President Ma’s tenure (2008-2016), Taiwan signed 20 pacts with the PRC, including, in 2010, the Cross-Straits Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (18). The agreement lifted a decade long trade barriers between the two nations. Subsequently, direct sea, air and mail links resumed. Tsai and the DPP have attempted to diversify Taiwan’s trade relations, with varied results. Tsai experienced success with boosting trade and investment with countries in Southeast Asia and the Indo-Pacific through systematic initiatives, particularly the New Southbound Policy. Trade and investment between Taiwan and its designated countries increased by $15 billion between 2016 and 2019 (19). Additionally, in 2019, Tsai revealed a three-year plan to incentivise Taiwanese manufacturers to move from the mainland back to Taiwan.

Inversely, however, Taiwan’s trade with China in 2020 hit an all-time high. Beijing has pressured nations not to sign free trade agreements with Taiwan. Only a handful of nations have, with New Zealand and Singapore the only countries in the developed world to do so. Furthermore, Beijing has pushed for the exclusion of Taiwan from multilateral trading blocs such as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) (20).

Taiwan is not part of the United Nations (UN) because China rejects its participation. Given China’s increasing military capabilities and assertiveness, it is rumoured that China will do anything to “reunite” the mainland. Taiwan is highly unlikely to stave off a Chinese attack without external support, and so enters the United State of America (21). The US formally initiated diplomatic ties with the ROC in 1999, while simultaneously cutting diplomatic ties with the PRC. Amid mounting tensions between the PRC and the US and Taiwan and China, it is unknown whether the US would come to Taiwan’s aid. The US has adopted an ambiguous stance on the matter; it has, however, been selling defensive weapons to Taiwan against China’s wishes. Taiwan, in 2020, purchased $5.1 billion worth of arms from the US (22).

Since 1994, China has launched a series of military exercises. These exercises have a dual purpose: to demonstrate China’s resolve in maintaining the territorial integrity of the nation and to intimidate Taiwan into conforming to the “one-China principle” (23). Escalating tensions between China and the US may not necessarily be observed on the ground but can be seen in the US’s shifting opinion of China. China’s military might and enhanced capabilities have increased tension in the Strait, including for nations in Taiwan’s general vicinity - South Korea, Japan, The Philippines and Australia.

In closing, tensions are high. What can Taiwan do, and will the escalating tension result in war between China, Taiwan and the USA? Only time will tell.

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About the Author

Qhawezo Ayesha Fakude is a Junior Research Fellow at Africa Asia Dialogues (Afrasid).  She holds a Bachelor of Social Science from the University of Cape Town, South Africa. She majored in politics and governance, anthropology and sociology.