There is increased pressure on oil-producing countries to do more to limit the effect of climate change.
Some of these countries have begun making efforts and have detailed plans to address climate change. Azerbaijan, one of the major oil-producing countries in the world, for example, has committed to a 40% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 compared to 1990 levels and aims to increase renewable energy to 30% of its total electricity capacity by 2030.
Among the first executive orders US President Donald Trump signed after taking office was the withdrawal from several treaties and agreements on climate change. He signed an executive order declaring a national energy emergency — a directive aimed at rolling back regulations on the oil and gas sector and accelerating drilling and pipeline development.
In his inauguration speech, Trump insisted that the US would “Drill, baby, drill”, emphasising that the country would intensify oil drilling and encourage increased oil production to boost its economy.
This position contradicts those taken by previous administrations. Under the Biden administration, the US took a strong stance on climate action, committing to a 61% to 66% reduction in net greenhouse gas emissions by 2035. It also set a goal of reaching net-zero emissions by 2050.
Moreover, the US had accelerated the transition to a clean energy economy, aiming to reduce oil demand rather than production.
Trump has reversed those commitments. Notably, he has withdrawn from the Paris Accord — an international treaty adopted in 2015 aiming to limit global warming to below 2°C, among other goals.
The US company Tesla has been innovative in the production of electric vehicles (EVs), arguably compensating for the US’s shortcomings in its climate change efforts. Tesla has been praised globally for its technology and introduction of efficient and competitive alternatives to petrol-powered vehicles. It has significantly reshaped the perception of EVs by demonstrating their viability, performance and desirability — moving them from niche to mainstream and inspiring other car makers to invest heavily in EV technology.
Tesla’s core offering has not only targeted car enthusiasts; the company prides itself on accelerating the transition to sustainable energy, building products designed to replace some of the planet’s biggest polluters.
Tesla’s products have also appealed to environmentalists. Tesla claims that, because of its technology, in 2023 customers avoided releasing over 20 million metric tonnes of CO2 equivalents (a unit of measurement used to standardise the climate effects of greenhouse gases) into the atmosphere.
Tesla’s founder, Elon Musk — the world’s richest man — joined the Trump 2.0 administration in January 2025. He has endorsed conservative policies on governance and has become a central figure among those opposing climate change policies.
Consequently, many Tesla clients and patrons are increasingly feeling betrayed by a company that, since its establishment in 2003, has operated under global environmental concerns. Protests against Tesla have been organised across the US and Europe. Musk’s support for and association with the Make America Great Again movement and his involvement in the Trump administration have intensified calls to boycott Tesla.
Crowds protesting against the purge of the US government under Trump have been congregating outside Tesla dealerships in the US and in some European cities. Tesla clients have also expressed concern about their indirect support of Trump through their patronage of the company. According to CBS News, Elon Musk spent more than a quarter of a billion dollars to back then president-elect Trump and other Republican candidates.
Musk is leading the department of government efficiency (Doge), a new entity in the Trump 2.0 administration aimed at improving government efficiency, cutting wasteful expenditure and increasing revenues. A few months after its establishment, the department froze federal grants and issued a costly directive offering employees paid resignation. Musk has also dismantled the US Agency for International Development and seized control of a huge database containing sensitive information on all Americans. These actions have raised serious legal and constitutional concerns.
Tesla plans to open operations in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, in April 2025. Pop-up stores in Riyadh, Jeddah and Dammam will be operational by 11 April.
In 2018, Tesla decided not to sell its EVs in Saudi Arabia. Falling sales figures as a result of the protests and calls for a boycott led to a change in strategy. Tesla’s sales in Europe are down 42.6% this year, even as demand for EVs increases.
Saudi Arabia appears out of touch with global sentiment in its decision on Tesla. Launching its operations amid protests against the company and Elon Musk is likely to compound the country’s public relations problems. First, the US’s support for Israel has been blamed for the ongoing killing of women and children and the bombardment of Palestine.
Saudi Arabia has been criticised for its intentions to endorse the Abraham Accords and normalise relations with Israel. Hosting Tesla may heighten such criticisms. The accords are agreements aimed at improving relations between Israel and its Arab neighbours.
Second, Musk has called for the elimination of Hamas and likened the situation in Gaza to how the US treated Germany and Japan after World War II. Under the Treaty of Versailles, Germany was made to accept full blame for World War I, subjected to heavy reparations, military reductions and territorial losses. Israel has persistently called for the expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza and continues to annex parts of the West Bank.
Reflecting this ideology, Trump has proposed relocating Palestinians from Gaza to other countries instead of rebuilding homes in the war-torn region, which he referred to as a “demolition site”. He suggested expelling Palestinians to Jordan and Egypt; both countries have rejected this proposal. Trump has also proposed transforming Gaza into a “riviera of the Middle East.”
Whether Tesla will succeed in Saudi Arabia remains uncertain amid heightened political tensions between the US, Israel and grassroots movements in the region. Regardless of the outcome, Tesla’s investment in Saudi Arabia is likely to draw negative attention to the country and its de facto leader, Mohammed bin Salman.
Rwanda has expelled all Belgian diplomats and gave them 48 hours to leave the country. Belgium has retaliated by expelling Rwandan diplomats from Brussels. The government of President Paul Kagame has accused Brussels of attempting to “sustain its neo-colonial delusions“.
Belgium hosts the largest Rwandan diaspora in the world —most work in the informal sector. They rely on their embassy for a number of services including registration of births and the renewal of visas and passports.
The expulsion of diplomats and cancelling of embassy and consular services is going to have a detrimental effect on them.
Likewise, there are several Belgian companies and many professionals operating in Rwanda who are also going to be negatively impacted by these developments.
Spats between Belgium and Rwanda are nothing new.
Rwanda, a former Belgian colony, continues to berate the country about its past atrocities and blames it for the genocide in 1994. This resulted in the deaths of more than 800 000 people. Most of them were Tutsis, a Bantu language-speaking group spread across the eastern part of Africa. he history of Belgium’s colonisation of the Congo and neighbouring countries was characterised by brutality. When King Philippe of Belgium visited the region in 2022, he expressed regret for the “paternalism, discrimination and racism” of the colonial regime.
He also reaffirmed his “deepest regrets for the wounds of the past” but stopped short of apologising.
Belgium was responsible for the drafting of the haphazard map of the Great Lakes region. Traditional tribal foes were lumped together and forced to live with each other. This culminated in political havoc, instability and toxic tribalism.
The inability of the governments of the day to manage multi-ethnic societies by ensuring equitable access to natural resources, rule of law and political inclusion created a situation ripe for conflict.
The eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has remained the epicentre of instability in the region since independence in 1960.
There is a sizeable Tutsis in the eastern DRC , they have strong ties with other Tutsi groups across the border. Tutsis have long seen themselves as victims of the haphazard drafting of borders.
Although conflicts have tended to be intrastate in the beginning, due to strong cross-border dimensions and transnational ethnic identities, they have often spread to destabilise the whole region.
Since assuming office in 1994, Kagame has regarded himself as a sort of saviour of the Tutsis in the region. A case in point is his support of the DRC’s March 2023 rebel group, also known as M23. Notwithstanding his efforts in encouraging national cohesion by promoting Rwandan national identity and making it a crime for Rwandans to describe themselves based on ethnicity, he embraces a different posture outside the borders of the country. In the aftermath of the 1994 Rwandan genocide, Kagame banned people from sharing their ethnic identity.
The Congolese Tutsi communities, the Banyamulenge, who live mainly in South Kivu, and the Banyarwanda, who live in North Kivu, fought along with Rwanda during that country’s civil war from 1990 to 1994.
Many Hutus fled Rwanda after the genocide and most settled in the eastern part of the DRC. They included members of the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR).
Many members of the FDLR were part of Interahamwe, the Hutu paramilitary organisation that led the 1994 Rwandan genocide.
There has been a push by Rwanda to repatriate FDLR members to Rwanda to face justice.
Importantly, Rwanda would like to destroy the FDLR as it continues to present an existential threat to the country. FDLR members have resisted being repatriated, fearing reprisals and imprisonment.
The M23, a group made up primarily of Tutsis, has been battling the FDLR and the DRC forces for the better part of its existence.
Kagame has been accused of arming and supporting the M23. Peace talks between M23, the government of the DRC and other stakeholders were due to take place in Angola on 18 March. However, the M23 pulled out unexpectedly on 17 March. The group has accused certain international institutions of sabotaging peace efforts and making the long-awaited talks impossible.
Interestingly, M23’s decision to pull out of the negotiations happened almost at the same time as the announcement of the expulsion of the Belgian diplomats from Rwanda were made.
The DRC has become an example of the new scramble for African resources. China, EU countries, South Africa and the US have business interests there. These countries present opportunities and challenges for the people of the DRC.
South Africa has been involved in the DRC for over 30 years. It has contributed troops to the UN Organisation Stabilisation Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo since 1999 and lent support to the SADC mission deployed to the region in 2023. Notwithstanding this, South African business interests in the DRC have been growing.
Last year, South African imports from the DRC were mainly iron products and steel. In 2023 R26.6 billion of South African goods went to DRC, compared to R23.6 billion in 2022. South African exports were machinery (R11.1 billion), iron products and steel (R3 billion), chemicals (R2.6 billion) and plastics and rubber (R1.8 billion).
The EU and the DRC continue to strengthen economic ties. In October 2023, the EU and the DRC signed a strategic partnership on sustainable raw materials value chains.
The advent of artificial intelligence (AI) and electronic vehicles (EV’s) has increased the rush for the DRC’s mineral resources.
Materials essential for the production of smartphones, semiconductors, computer chips and other technology essential in the AI and EV industries are found in abundance in the DRC. Among them are cobalt, coltan and lithium.
The US and EU countries are keen on securing supplies of these vital resources and have used various methods, including political interference, to secure business from the DRC. Recently, the government offered the US exclusive rights to its critical minerals.
In conclusion, the expulsion of the Belgian diplomats comes at a critical time in the geopolitics of the region. The EU recently imposed sanctions on Rwanda’s top military brass, prompting a reaction from the country. The US expelled South Africa’s ambassador Ebrahim Rasool a few days ago. Some question whether these events are related, perhaps part of the US’s Southern African strategic plan.
While the US is doubling down on South Africa, its political ties and strategic partnerships with Rwanda seem to be strengthening.
According to a retired South African general, M23 rebels fighting the Congolese army in eastern Congo are using advanced weapons and equipment similar to that used by the Israeli army and US special forces. Rwanda and South Africa have had serious tensions over the past couple of months after the killing of South Africa peacekeeping forces in the eastern DRC.
At the same time, South Africa seems set to strengthen political ties and economic cooperation with the EU, after its president Ursula von der Leyen visited Cape Town recently.
(This article first appeared in the Mail Guardian)
The announcement by Donald Trump that he was terminating the services of the US Agency for International Development (USAID) globally has sent shock waves across the world. Health groups, non-governmental organizations and others who received money from the US aid funding to do good work had been bracing for bad news since President Donald Trump’s executive order froze the funding for a 90-day review on Jan. 20. Many countries, particularly in Africa have been relying on US’s assistance for a number of projects for decades. The abrupt cancellation of USAID is certainly going to impact not only the workings of aid and humanitarian organisations in Africa but also national budgets.
The US has not been the only country offering assistance to the needy in Africa. Azerbaijan has been engaged in a number of humanitarian and educational projects. The Heydar Aliyev Foundation for an example has a history of implementing impactful projects in health, social welfare, and education across Africa. Notable among these are financial contributions to the development of the School of African Heritage and the provision of medical equipment to the Republic of Djibouti to strengthen its healthcare system.
Azerbaijan has invested most of its wealth to its people and economy managing to reduce unemployment and increasing its social spending. This has resulted in increased growth of the country’s economy. Azerbaijan’s rapid economic growth over the past two decades was accompanied by a significant fall in poverty rate. Improving shared prosperity and reducing inequality remains an important goal for Azerbaijan. Simultaneously it has increased its global involvement in humanitarian projects and multilateralism in recent times. Recently the country hosted a successful COP 29 conference in Baku, gathering 200 countries, reaching and making new commitments to the challenges of climate change. COP29 reached a breakthrough agreement that will: Triple finance to developing countries, from the previous goal of USD 100 billion annually, to USD 300 billion annually by 2035. President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev whilst admitting that the country’s natural resources are “God’s gift to Azerbaijan”, he equally understands his country’s responsibility to reducing the effects of climate change. Speaking at the opening ceremony of World Leaders Climate Action Summit at COP29, Aliyev argued that every natural resource is a gift from God. Countries should not be blamed for having them, and should not be blamed for bringing these resources to the market because the market needs them. Notwithstanding oil being one of the mainstays of its economy, hosting of COP29 demonstrated the country’s commitment to helping in mitigatin climate change.
Azerbaijan has also increased its participation in other multilateral platforms. It has been chairing the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) since 2019. NAM is an international organisation which aims at promoting the interests and ambitions of the developing countries. The Movement has 120 member states, 17 Observer countries and 10 observer organizations. During its chairpersonship, Azerbaijan has managed to promote a number of global initiatives including encouraging youth involvement in the movement. Azerbaijan Youth Summit of the Non-Aligned Movement was the first of its kind to be hosted by the movement. Young people from 40 countries participated in the Summit.
Another initiative of Azerbaijan is the annual Shusha Global Media Forum. The forum aims to promote engagement between the local and global media. It serves as an important platform to discuss challenges of artificial Intelligence in the media, media integrity and other global crisis impacting media and journalism. Over 150 participants, mostly journalists attended the summit in 2024. Since its inception in 2023, the summit has been taking place in Shusha, the capital city of the province of Karabagh.
It has been suggested that the exiting of US in developmental work could allow countries such as Azerbaijan a more significant role in the development of global socioeconomic spheres, particularly in Africa. Azerbaijan already sponsors a number of students from various African countries to study in its universities. Over 365 students from over 30 African countries have been enrolled since the start of the program. This initiative has allowed a gradual cultural exchange between Azerbaijan and Africa. Azerbaijan has also been proactive in providing equipment and training of African doctors and other medical practitioners.
There are many other humanitarian projects that the government of Azerbaijan is persuading across Africa. Through the Heydar Aliyev Foundation, the country has been very active in providing aid to a number of countries in Africa. It currently delivers aid to Sudan, Angola, Chad amongst others. Most of its activities are focusing on healthcare and landmine clearance to assist communities in restoring farmland.
Africa needs more than just aid, the economies of many African countries have remained stagnant because of lack of skilled labor and relevant technology meant to fast track development. Lack of technology means that most African countries and economies cannot advance. Azerbaijan has engaged in some of the most advanced projects aimed at bridging the digital gap and improving public service efficiency in Africa. Through Azerbaijan’s ASAN xidmat, Azerbaijani for “easy service”, the country has been assisting African countries in streamlining services in the public sector. ASAN xidmat is a pioneering public service, an initiation of Azerbaijan, committed to good governance, citizen centric easy access in public services. It is also meant to improve governance and improve efficiency in the public sector.
In conclusion, as the world politics and alliances disintegrate a vacuum is being created. The US and indeed many European countries have a historical baggage and a trust deficit in Africa. The continent is in need of new partners as it readies itself for a new reconfigured world. Azerbaijan is likely to become that partner.
The geographical importance and the role of Turkiye in global politics, especially after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, has increased. The role and significance of Turkiye as a member of NATO has also gained prominence. After Turkiye's green light, NATO has expanded to include Finland. Sweden is likely to follow once negotiations between NATO and Turkiye are concluded. All NATO decisions are made by consensus, after discussion and consultation among member countries.
The forthcoming presidential and parliamentary elections in Turkey on 14 May are important for the region and for Africa. There are several socio-political issues that have been raised as part of their respective election campaign by both presidential candidates. The foremost of these has been the state of the economy and refugees and immigrants, particularly Syrians. Moreover, the election takes place as Turkiye prepares itself for the 100th anniversary of the Republic founded by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has set a national target for Turkiye to become one of the world's ten largest economies. The elections, therefore, carry with them a great sense of nationalism which will be key in deciding the winner. As the leader of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), Erdogan is facing a fierce challenge from Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the leader of the Republican People's Party (CHP), part of the National Alliance for these elections.
The Turkish elections are also important for Sub-Saharan African countries, where Turkiye has been aggressive in re-establishing relations. Over the past 20 years, Turkiye has increased the number of its embassies across Africa from 12 to 42. Erdogan has underlined that a total of 10,480 African students who graduated from Turkish universities serve their countries as Turkey's "peace ambassadors". In South Africa, in particular, social engagements between the two nations have experienced a dramatic increase.
The current ambassador of Turkiye to South Africa, Aysegul Kandas, is regarded as the most engaging Turkish ambassador in Pretoria for decades. The earthquake tragedy which had an impact on millions of lives and property in south-east Turkiye has added to the country's general interaction and visibility in South Africa. Tourism and business have also increased tremendously over the years. According toTurkiye's Foreign Minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, "South Africa is our largest trade partner in Sub-Saharan Africa. While the trade volume between our countries stood at only $457 million in 2003, it reached a record high of$3 billion by the end of 2022."
Africans will thus be observing the Turkish elections with a great deal of interest. Turkiye has embraced multiple approaches in how it deals with Sub-Saharan Africa. Consequently, there has been an increase in the number of Africans doing business in Turkiye at all levels. Moreover, there is also a growing Sub-Saharan African diaspora in Turkey, especially in Istanbul.
There is a desire by most Africans in Turkiye and beyond for the political status quo to be maintained. Turkiye has been careful not to apply a blanket foreign policy in dealing with Africa. Unlike many countries in the region, it recognises that Africa is not a country, but a continent consisting of 54 countries. Consequently, it has applied country-specific approaches in engaging Africa. According to Ahmed Vall, a researcher based in Qatar, this strategy has worked, and has "placed Turkiye on a different political pedestal in many countries in Africa."
Turkiye has also used its geopolitical positioning to lobby on behalf of Africa; the renewed grain deal signed between Moscow and Ankara continues to be praised around the world. Under the deal, Russia will allow Ukraine to export twenty-five million additional tons of grain, including foodstuffs, to underdeveloped countries, including some in Africa.
Turkiye's rapprochement with Africa is important, particularly now, as the political space in Africa becomes more polarised. The competitive nature of politics in Russia and the US continue to have an impact on African politics, which could fracture the political consensus in the African Union in the long run.
The voting patterns of African countries at the UN regarding the war in Ukraine is one case in point. The division within the African body politic on various matters could also impede economic growth.
China, meanwhile, has embraced a "see no evil, hear no evil" political approach with Africa. Hence, said Vall, Turkiye's presence in Africa presents an alternative to US and Russian hegemony across the continent. The current government in Turkiye has played a crucial balancing act in Africa; without Turkiye it could be argued that Africa could be thrown back into the days of the Cold War, forced to choose between Russia and the US. For this reason alone, Turkiye should continues its rapprochement with Africa after the elections.
The convenience of pairing Special Rapid Forces (RSF), a paramilitary force in Sudan, alongside the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) for the sake of "peace and stability" has proven not to be such a great idea after all.
The RSF is the remnants of the Janjaweed, a paramilitary force responsible for the mass killing and displacement of thousands of people in Darfur, a province west of Sudan.
Both organisations received support from the then-president of Sudan, Omar Hassan al Bashir. Al Bashir is currently facing several charges, including five counts of crimes against humanity, two counts of war crimes three counts of genocide allegedly committed at least between 2003 and 2008 in Darfur, Sudan.
The Janjaweed, which was led by General Mohamad Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemedti, dissipated after regional and international condemnation of mass killings and displacement of thousands of people in Darfur. Hemedti re-emerged later in 2013 as the leader of the RSF.
2019 coup
Under al Bashir, the RSF was granted powers to do as they pleased in the country. It turned its military capabilities into business, exporting its military services in return for money.
Beginning in 2015, the RSF, along with Sudan's army, began sending troops to fight in the war in Yemen alongside Saudi and Emirati troops, allowing Hemedti to forge ties with the Gulf powers. RSF made a tremendous amount of money for its leader, Hemedti and his family.
Notwithstanding the relationship Hemedti enjoyed with al Bashir, he joined forces with SAF in a coup in 2019 to topple al Bashir. After the coup, the RSF was responsible for providing security to some key places and infrastructure in Sudan, including the presidential palace in Khartoum.
Hemedti became a deputy head of the Transitional Sovereignty Council, an interim structure meant to lead all parties after the coup to a civilian government. There has always been scepticism and mistrust of RSF and Hemedti in Sudan. However, RSF's involvement in the coup helped, to an extent, to alter certain attitudes in its favour.
In 2021 hundreds of protestors were killed by RSF following protests against the Transitional Sovereignty Council's slow progress to civilian rule. RSF was accused of throwing some of the dead bodies of protestors into the Nile River.
According to the Central Committee of Sudan Doctors (CCSD), following the protests, "sixty people were reported to have been killed in the military crackdown in the capital Khartoum, before scores of bodies were found dumped in the river by the paramilitary RSF".
Attitudes towards the RSF hardened after the protests. Some Sudanese started calling for Hemedti to be reported to the International Criminal Court (ICC). Then tensions between the head of the Transitional Sovereignty Council, General Abdelfattah al Burhan and Hemedti began deteriorating.
Impatience with lack of civilian rule
Realising the general public’s impatience with council's lack of progress towards the transfer of power to civilian rule, Hemedti started accusing al Burhan of hindering progress to civilian rule.
Al Burhan, on the other hand, argued that before power can be transferred to civilian rule, the RSF must be integrated into the SAF. Hemedti has been resisting the integration of his forces into the army for various reasons.
Firstly this integration could weaken his leverage and power in the politics of Sudan, making him vulnerable. Secondly, Hemedti built the RSF.
"It is his asset and the most powerful tool, not only to keep him in power but to continue generating resources for him and his family", argues Ahmed Vall, a senior political analyst.
Hemedti is also likely to be arrested if he forsakes his powers in RSF. He stands accused of crimes against humanity in Darfur and mass killing of protestors in Khartoum in 2021.
Lessons for Africa
There are lessons for other countries to be learned from the conflict in Sudan. Africa must reject all forms of military parallelism if it is to achieve long-lasting peace and stability. The inclusion of RSF into the Transitional Sovereignty Council might have achieved some semblance of peace in Sudan in the short term, however, it is proving to be a disaster in hindsight.
There are other countries in Africa that need to take heed from the experiences in Sudan.
Ethiopia has several regional forces that are armed and often act independently from the national army. Weeks ago, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced plans to integrate Amhara forces into the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF). The announcement was rejected by regional generals in Amhara followed by violent protests.
The Amhara generals vowed not to allow the integration of their forces into police and national army in Ethiopia. Ethiopia was engaged in a civil war with a paramilitary wing of the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front (TPLF) in Tigray from 2022 to 2022. The war left scores of casualties and millions displaced.
Zimbabwe had similar experiences.
The Zimbabwe War Veterans intensified the expulsion of white farmers from their properties in 2008, with the support of President Robert Mugabe and his government.
Politicians and cronies of Mugabe in Zimbabwe became owners of farms overnight. Today, most of those farms that were taken lie derelict. The war veterans, although weakened and rendered irrelevant in mainstream politics, remain a possible source of instability in Zimbabwe.
South Africa is also not immune from the trappings of military parallelism. The existence of UMkhonto wesize Military Veteran’s Association (MKMVA), an organ of the governing African National Congress (ANC) must not be taken for granted.